Iowa Is an 89% Match with U.S. Demographics & Predicts 64% of Democratic Nominees

Iowa the outlier. The state doesn’t do ‘primary elections’ like most other states so voters don’t cast a ballot in the same way the rest of the country does. Yet, the state has been a predictor of what’s to come in the presidential races for years.

WalletHub recently analyzed what to expect from the Iowa Caucus in their in-depth examination of the pathway to the presidential ballot.

“Their system includes an additional, unusual component: a community discussion that takes place in each of the state’s 1,681 precincts before either party’s registered constituents finally cast their ballots. The voting itself happens in one evening, after a yearlong process of meeting the contestants, arguing about them and enduring the bright glare of the media spotlight.”

Over the years, this unique operation has attracted praise for exemplifying “grassroots democracy” as well as condemnation for perpetuating what many consider an outdated, unrepresentative procedure.

Source: WalletHub

Key Findings

  • The Overall Resemblance Index for Iowa is 89.
    • Sociodemographics: 84
    • Economics: 89
    • Education: 92
    • Religion: 87
    • Public Opinion: 91
       
  • 63.6% of Iowa-caucus winners have won the Democratic Party nomination and 44.4% the Republican Party nomination. The Iowa caucuses, therefore, are a much better predictor of advancement for Democrats than for Republicans.
     
  • Iowa least resembles the U.S. in terms of race, with a 50.00 percent difference; religious composition, with a 74.52 percent difference; wealth gap, with a 76.41 percent difference; and employment by industry, with an 80.30 percent difference.
     
  • Iowa most resembles the U.S. in terms of mean work hours, with a 99.48 percent similarity; unemployment rate, with a 99.10 percent similarity; school enrollment, with a 99.02 percent similarity; and importance of religion in one’s life, with a 99.00 percent similarity.

WalletHub’s data set of 22 key measures includes sociodemographic, economic, educational and religious metrics as well as public stances on certain issues.

Metric NameResemblance Index
Sociodemographic84.27%
Gender98.93%
Age94.30%
Race50.00%
Family Relationship90.10%
Health Insurance Coverage92.20%
Place of Birth83.80%
Economics89.35%
Poverty Rate96.40%
Wealth Gap76.41%
Food Stamp Entitlement of Households95.70%
Number of Part-Time Employees for Every 100 Full-Time Employees94.88%
Unemployment Rate99.10%
Length of Average Workweek99.48%
Education91.61%
Educational Attainment84.20%
School Enrollment99.02%
Religion86.76%
Religious Composition of Adults74.52%
Importance of Religion in One’s Life among Adults99.00%
Public Opinions91.42%
Party Affiliation among adults92.00%
Political Ideology among Adults91.00%
Views about Abortion among Adults92.00%
Should there be more restrictions on the current process of purchasing a gun?90.70%
OVERALL88.68%
Source: WalletHub

Detailed Findings

Metric NameIowa ValueU.S. ValueResemblance Index
Sociodemographic84.27%
Gender98.93%
% of Male50.13%49.59%
% of Female49.87%50.41%
Age94.30%
% of Population Younger than Age 1926.00%24.80%
% of Population Between Ages 20 & 247.30%6.70%
% of Population Between Ages 25 & 3412.40%13.70%
% of Population Between Ages 35 & 4412.40%12.90%
% of Population Between Ages 45 & 5411.50%12.40%
% of Population Between Ages 55 & 6413.00%12.90%
% of Population Aged 65 & Older17.60%16.50%
Race50.00%
% of White Population83.80%58.90%
% of Black or African American Population3.70%12.10%
% of American Indian or Alaskan Population0.20%0.60%
% of Asian Population2.50%5.70%
% of Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Population0.10%0.20%
% of Other Population3.10%3.90%
% of Hispanic Population6.50%18.70%
Family Relationship90.10%
% of Population Who Are Householders41.70%38.90%
% of Population Who Are Spouses (in Households)20.40%18.50%
% of Population Who Are Children (in Households)27.90%29.40%
% of Population Represented by Other Relatives (in Households)3.60%7.10%
% of Population Represented by Nonrelatives (in Households)3.20%3.40%
Health Insurance Coverage92.20%
% of Population with Health Insurance Coverage95.20%91.30%
% of Population without Health Insurance Coverage4.80%8.70%
Place of Birth83.80%
% of Foreign-Born Population5.60%13.70%
% of Native Population94.40%86.30%
Economics89.35%
% of Population with the Following Household Income Levels88.00%
Less than $25,00015.20%15.70%
$25,000 – 34,9997.80%7.40%
$35,000 – 49,99911.90%10.70%
$50,000 – $74,99917.90%16.10%
$75,000 – $99,99914.30%12.80%
$100,000 – $149,99918.20%17.10%
$150,000 or More14.70%20.20%
Poverty Rate96.40%
% of Families in Poverty7.00%8.80%
% of Families Above Poverty Line93.00%91.20%
Wealth Gap12.8516.8276.41%
Food Stamp Entitlement of Households95.70%
% of Households Receiving Food Stamps9.37%11.52%
% of Households not Receiving Food Stamps90.63%88.48%
Number of Part-Time Employees for Every 100 Full-Time Employees42.5944.8994.88%
Unemployment Rate2.70%3.60%99.10%
Length of Average Workweek38.9038.7099.48%
Civilian Employed Population Aged 16 Years & Older by Industry80.30%
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting, and Mining3.70%1.60%
Construction6.70%6.90%
Manufacturing14.90%10.00%
Wholesale Trade2.70%2.40%
Retail Trade11.60%11.00%
Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities5.20%5.80%
Information1.40%1.90%
Finance and Insurance, and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing7.70%6.70%
Professional, Scientific, and Management, and Administrative and Waste Management Services7.50%12.10%
Educational Services, and Health Care and Social Assistance24.20%23.30%
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation, and Accommodation and Food Services7.00%9.00%
Other Services, except Public Administration4.20%4.70%
Public Administration3.20%4.70%
Education91.61%
Educational Attainment84.20%
% of People Aged 25 & Older with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher30.20%34.30%
% of People Aged 25 & Older with Some College Experience or Associate’s Degree32.10%28.40%
% of People Aged 25 & Older Who Are High School Graduates30.60%26.40%
% of People Aged 25 & Older Who Did Not Complete High School7.00%10.80%
School Enrollment99.02%
% of Population Aged 3 & Older Enrolled in School25.62%25.13%
% of Population Aged 3 & Older not Enrolled in School74.38%74.87%
Religion86.76%
Religious Composition of Adults74.52%
Evangelical Protestant11.05%16.50%
Mainline Protestant15.72%5.20%
Black Protestant0.74%2.20%
Catholic14.75%18.70%
Orthodox0.10%0.40%
Other Adherents1.48%0.10%
Islam0.73%1.30%
Judaism0.10%0.60%
Hinduism0.13%0.40%
Buddhism0.06%0.30%
Unclaimed Population55.14%54.30%
Importance of Religion in One’s Life among Adults99.00%
% Very religious37.00%37.00%
% Moderately religious30.00%30.00%
% Nonreligious32.00%33.00%
Public Opinions91.42%
Party Affiliation among adults92.00%
Republican/lean Rep.42.00%38.00%
Democrat/lean Dem.42.00%45.00%
No lean16.00%17.00%
Political Ideology among Adults91.00%
Conservative37.00%33.60%
Moderate32.00%34.30%
Liberal26.00%28.20%
Don’t know5.00%3.90%
Views about Abortion among Adults92.00%
Legal in all/most cases61.00%65.00%
Illegal in all/most cases (including Don’t know)39.00%35.00%
Should there be more restrictions on the current process of purchasing a gun?90.70%
Yes61.70%66.35%
No37.78%33.65%
Other0.52%0.00%
OVERALL88.68%

2 Comments

  1. As frigid temperatures scour the Midwest, the Republican presidential nominating process will officially start Monday with Iowa’s caucuses.The quadrennial contest has been unusually quiet this year, a mark of former President Donald Trump’s commanding lead in the race.

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